Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x102cc72c4ddd784f9b81f199563ac3c320faed8533d6ea6cb8d6ab0ada5fc34a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 34c | 274.53$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.92 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 45c | 216.35$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 210.77$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.17 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 73c | 192.58$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 43c | 183.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 52c | 182.92$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 177.55$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 173.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 134.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.24 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 132.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 67c | 123$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 51c | 123$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 119.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 107.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 47c | 107.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 97.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 87.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 76.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 72.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 71c | 69.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 30c | 69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 23c | 60.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 48c | 60.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 60.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 23c | 59.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 36c | 59.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 67c | 58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…b843backed Yes | 27c | 55.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 34c | 55.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 50.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 47.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 42c | 47.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 36c | 47.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 44.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 64c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 63c | 41.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…026dbacked No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 36.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed No | 34c | 35.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 49c | 33.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 65c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 43c | 31.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 48c | 31.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 35c | 31.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 47c | 27.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 79c | 25.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked Yes | 79c | 25.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +11.6wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 25.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 48c | 20.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 19.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 64c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646d…0d58backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 70c | 16.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 74c | 16.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 65c | 16.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 75c | 16.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…4ed0backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 68c | 14.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…4990backed No | 75c | 14.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.