Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49dbfc848c505a34c1d3de29ef40d0ce2885e26d9f302885edc4e94424194c8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 27c | 347.47$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.67 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 37c | 342.62$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.25 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 51c | 326.09$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 59c | 285$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.74 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 230.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 62c | 152.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 145.2$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 125.01$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 59c | 122.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 117.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 52c | 114.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 39c | 109.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 55c | 106$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 48c | 97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 73c | 90.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 88.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 50c | 80.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 72.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 47c | 60.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 76c | 57.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 24c | 55.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 48c | 50.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 46c | 49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 47c | 47.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…0f99backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 62c | 39.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea7d…569ebacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 58c | 34.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 33.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 59c | 32.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 31.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 57c | 30.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…75aebacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 52c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 57c | 29.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 40c | 28.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 71c | 27.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 50c | 27.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 53c | 26.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 49c | 25.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 79c | 24.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 44c | 24.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed No | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 44c | 22.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 45c | 22.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 56c | 22.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 71c | 22.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 65c | 20.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 76c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 60c | 18.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 65c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.