NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Wild: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x104235a409b7797f57b20ab6f6ba7e63f67d9820af4b2f45f6a85a2a2ed06d72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,924 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 61c | 1,031$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.13 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 37c | 835$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.85 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 41c | 620.55$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.42 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 41c | 563.13$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.36 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 40c | 491.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.39 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…aa48backed Under | 60c | 414.27$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 59c | 254$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 36c | 253$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…763dbacked Under | 59c | 250.64$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.76 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 66c | 213.31$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.66 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 72c | 211.73$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.57 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 25c | 193.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Under | 61c | 164.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…1e38backed Under | 62c | 145.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 62c | 139.12$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 63c | 120.28$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Under | 70c | 111$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Under | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 40c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…1641backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Over | 42c | 41.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 62c | 36.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1336…4116backed Over | 39c | 26.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…73debacked Under | 59c | 24.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Over | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Under | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 80c | 16.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Wild: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Wild won
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Stars won
- Stars vs. WildWild won
- Stars vs. Wild: O/U 4.5Under won
- Stars vs. Wild: O/U 5.5Under won
- Stars vs. Wild: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.