MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x104ff599a929bf2a5804372a6f62e8728939109c21523fae440c75326302b372
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 5,011$2,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,349.05 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Over | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.94 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 58c | 1,056$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.52 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 1c | 768.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 48c | 706.26$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 66c | 523.24$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.44 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 21c | 425.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 35c | 376.51$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 57c | 227.67$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 31c | 210.52$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 46c | 193.52$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.02 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 48c | 161.47$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b7…a75dbacked Over | 68c | 144.19$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 34c | 129.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…b79fbacked Over | 54c | 110.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 73c | 106.49$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x833a…e6d4backed Over | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Under | 48c | 95.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…8de0backed Under | 42c | 73.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…e660backed Under | 40c | 66.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 39c | 59.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a66…2c23backed Over | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 49.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 65c | 41.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 634 | 54.3%344 W · 290 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 48c | 39.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 61c | 38.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 33c | 37.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…8333backed Over | 53c | 32.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 47c | 30.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…a4e7backed Under | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 50c | 27.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c02…502bbacked Over | 67c | 23.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Under | 48c | 22.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 52c | 21.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 73c | 20.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Over | 64c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 162 | 56.2%91 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6764…6675backed Over | 54c | 18.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…cf21backed Over | 79c | 16.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco GiantsNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-5.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.