South American Leagues · resolved market
Fluminense FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10634dd4b1de627953fc61f5c19991e075f88a9f652fad12867c74d126ee9438
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 45c | 2,013$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.16 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Over | 49c | 1,575$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.77 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 1,279$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.83 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 55c | 831$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.95 | 3,449 | 51.4%1,773 W · 1,676 L | +22.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 588.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.1 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 556.88$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.73 | 5,831 | 45.4%2,647 W · 3,184 L | +99.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 79c | 388.2$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.68 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8562…ad77backed Under | 57c | 341.82$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 316.24$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.86 | 2,177 | 43.5%948 W · 1,229 L | -57.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 47c | 306.1$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.83 | 3,817 | 38.4%1,467 W · 2,350 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 21c | 300$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Over | 55c | 263.05$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.37 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 39c | 257.67$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.9 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 55c | 123.84$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 43c | 112.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…3e18backed Over | 50c | 82.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…3003backed Over | 47c | 82.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 48c | 81.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 144 | 35.4%51 W · 93 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb792…fa38backed Over | 47c | 80.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 57c | 73.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 45c | 64.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 1,489 | 37.4%557 W · 932 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 46c | 63.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd356…d72fbacked Under | 61c | 56.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Over | 59c | 53.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95ed…b7adbacked Over | 58c | 50.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 46c | 49.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 50c | 44.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 2,608 | 39.3%1,024 W · 1,584 L | -29.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 54c | 35.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1,511 | 46.1%697 W · 814 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 2,655 | 54.2%1,440 W · 1,215 L | +27.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under | 60c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…d032backed Under | 62c | 33.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 27.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 1,323 | 42.8%566 W · 757 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Over | 56c | 24.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Over | 44c | 22.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…d539backed Under | 77c | 21.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 71cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fluminense FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5this page
- Fluminense FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fluminense FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fluminense FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-2.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.