South American Leagues · resolved market
Fluminense FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c64caacb91833f41d088d88edd8f0a6466b0424446cddc76cea77fb3eace748
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 39c | 2,035$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.39 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 1,824$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.68 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 60c | 1,300$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 51c | 951.57$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.27 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 62c | 645.16$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.16 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 76c | 554.57$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.39 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 431.3$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.22 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 38c | 401.96$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.37 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Over | 58c | 369.27$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.09 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa57e…5e2abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 52c | 299.97$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.49 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Under | 34c | 279.07$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Under | 22c | 277.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Over | 56c | 222.54$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 63c | 184.96$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 51c | 183.84$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 70c | 182.58$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…78adbacked Over | 66c | 178.03$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda4…b658backed Over | 69c | 147.82$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 62c | 147.59$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…c3eebacked Under | 22c | 125.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 80c | 120.64$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 59c | 117.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 114.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 43c | 103.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 73c | 102.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 72c | 91.07$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f96…e7f0backed Under | 43c | 89.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 22c | 84.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 42c | 77.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad84…1897backed Over | 64c | 76.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under | 40c | 66.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 37c | 65.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 60c | 62.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed Over | 80c | 61.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb792…fa38backed Over | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3320…af8fbacked Over | 52c | 56.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 20c | 53.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 39c | 51.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518f…db1ebacked Over | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Over | 71c | 27.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 71c | 23.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0614…ff8bbacked Over | 60c | 21.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab35…118dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba27…3f88backed Over | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdefb…79afbacked Over | 72c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 77c | 13.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 246 | 65.9%162 W · 84 L | +26.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 79c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…7cf2backed Over | 79c | 12.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fluminense FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5this page
- Fluminense FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fluminense FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fluminense FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-2.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.