Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on January 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10aa044e00621209c1e6516ed820607867e1939c51e6416e78389133c07a28ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc993…6a45backed No | 0c | 46,442$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…b44bbacked No | 11c | 1,639$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.83 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 9c | 718.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 10c | 717.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 17c | 558.62$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c0…d9ffbacked No | 4c | 549.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 5c | 434.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed No | 7c | 414.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41cd…a24abacked No | 24c | 410.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 5c | 403.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 15c | 391.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6100…f328backed No | 17c | 366.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 4c | 341.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 338.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…edfbbacked No | 15c | 298.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…2ac4backed No | 10c | 283.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…9fcfbacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa580…b99abacked No | 17c | 189.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 12c | 184.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 19c | 151.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…d890backed No | 11c | 126.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed No | 19c | 104.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…c8debacked No | 19c | 104.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…5aabbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed No | 14c | 93.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 17c | 87.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…62fdbacked No | 14c | 79.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8826…9483backed No | 14c | 78.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d39fbacked Yes | 77c | 65.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…21aabacked No | 21c | 50.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…7b9cbacked Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81f1…02dfbacked Yes | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4b…6b39backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 77c | 27.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on January 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.