Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1108c7a72f52b6d46c69120efc4ac96ff4eb089e614752806afd3f0b6f1cfeb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC St. Pauli 1910of RB Leipzig, FC St. Pauli 1910
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b9c…7e44backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 74c | 25,525$18,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,646.36 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 9,998$2,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.37 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 3,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 2,907$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.72 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 800$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked RB Leipzig | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 450$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 450$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 450$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 360$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 350$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…15d1backed RB Leipzig | 29c | 346$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 70c | 299.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 290$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 286.28$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 280$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed RB Leipzig | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked RB Leipzig | 35c | 213.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked RB Leipzig | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 71c | 196.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 73c | 196.79$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 180$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked RB Leipzig | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 170$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 170$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 170$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 138 | 59.4%82 W · 56 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 70c | 170$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 170$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 70c | 169.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked RB Leipzig | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed RB Leipzig | 30c | 163.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 160$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 70c | 153.35$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +11.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed RB Leipzig | 30c | 135$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…91fdbacked RB Leipzig | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed RB Leipzig | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed RB Leipzig | 27c | 129.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 122 | 59%72 W · 50 L | +11.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 126 | 57.9%73 W · 53 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 116.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bf…231fbacked RB Leipzig | 29c | 112.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed RB Leipzig | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…127cbacked RB Leipzig | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked RB Leipzig | 31c | 95.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 94.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked RB Leipzig | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed RB Leipzig | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed RB Leipzig | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked RB Leipzig | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 113 | 60.2%68 W · 45 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed RB Leipzig | 26c | 56.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked RB Leipzig | 27c | 52.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked RB Leipzig | 29c | 45.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbd…191dbacked RB Leipzig | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)this page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.