NHL · resolved market
Kings vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1127c51764694d013a4e31f3089b66602ef6798b95fe8c20b12b61f2490b581c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Under | 49c | 10,000$4,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,149.99 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 48c | 9,000$4,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,679.99 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 52c | 7,975$4,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,147 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Over | 52c | 7,489$3,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,894.27 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed Under | 48c | 7,346$3,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,819.92 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 7,283$3,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,802.93 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 3,273$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,685.87 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 53c | 3,253$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.86 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Under | 47c | 2,969$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.62 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 48c | 2,904$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.94 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 51c | 2,292$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.92 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 52c | 2,200$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 295 | 51.9%153 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Over | 51c | 1,400$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 47c | 1,360$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.78 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8f…d351backed Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 53c | 929.44$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.72 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 48c | 872.92$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.92 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d37…5b73backed Under | 56c | 858.27$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…dcc0backed Over | 53c | 643.6$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.11 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 47c | 638.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.66 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 622$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.75 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 48c | 472$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.56 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 51c | 395.45$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.64 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Over | 52c | 383.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 182.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.42 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 51c | 182$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 51c | 179.57$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Over | 52c | 141$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Over | 59c | 126.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 48c | 122$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 52c | 118.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 52c | 110$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 106.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Under | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 34c | 104.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17bf…5a53backed Over | 33c | 101.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -6.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…20c8backed Over | 52c | 101.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Over | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ac…2108backed Over | 59c | 78.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 77.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 48c | 77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 67.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Under | 54c | 65.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Over | 47c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba87…bc76backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…53e3backed Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Over | 52c | 53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…f170backed Over | 49c | 50.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…b8cabacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 42c | 41.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Under | 49c | 40.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 321 | 45.5%146 W · 175 L | -18.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…f0a5backed Over | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…3d37backed Over | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Over | 55c | 29.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 52c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10c5…5ec9backed Over | 52c | 27.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…061bbacked Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Over | 52c | 22.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…138cbacked Under | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc76e…e4f0backed Over | 53c | 21.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…68ffbacked Under | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf19…976bbacked Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7337…0cd1backed Over | 52c | 20.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Over | 52c | 19.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5this page
- Kings vs. HurricanesHurricanes won
- Kings vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.