Dota2 · resolved market
Team Liquid to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x113d567227aaa5721ba2efdbd7c08acfd3804e5d1d7a4d0d39f079620cd61df7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 66c | 9,500$6,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,229.99 | 179 | 48.6%87 W · 92 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…281fbacked No | 34c | 3,803$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.01 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 34c | 2,377$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.18 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed No | 34c | 1,919$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.56 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 13c | 779.32$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.78 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 33c | 663.09$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.82 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 67c | 631.5$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.92 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 9c | 621.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 34c | 515$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.1 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked No | 36c | 515$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.25 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Yes | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 291 | 43.6%127 W · 164 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed No | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 68c | 264.39$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.78 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3441…8e5cbacked Yes | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…cfc5backed No | 34c | 244.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed No | 44c | 227.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked No | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 34c | 144$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe705…f910backed No | 34c | 125.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed No | 42c | 123.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked No | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked No | 15c | 88.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0326…370fbacked Yes | 67c | 39.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4358…3e76backed Yes | 64c | 23.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Team Liquid to win 2-0?this page
- L1ga Team to win 2-0?No won
- L1ga Team vs Team Liquid: Draw (1-1)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.