MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x114e843328ff68971392fc3c4cd9b264927e86f12b337bd2893543837e0a9afd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 64c | 16,606$10,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,915.65 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 39c | 12,875$5,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,003.45 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 34c | 5,625$1,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,912.41 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 60c | 5,572$3,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,244.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2e…f6c3backed Under | 33c | 1,462$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 34c | 1,242$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.14 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 67c | 853.02$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.44 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 34c | 562.47$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.24 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 34c | 328$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.52 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 29c | 209.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Under | 34c | 187.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Under | 34c | 182.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…7f05backed Over | 48c | 104.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Under | 34c | 98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Under | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 56c | 73.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 56c | 69.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 28c | 66.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf8…5d40backed Under | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 53c | 43.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb445…e4a3backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles DodgersSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 13.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.