MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x324cc5da5c92b7d83dc36c740e46802159f413ac15a7588982650728657f6562
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b20…3ab0backed Under | 43c | 57,225$24,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,606.9 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 57c | 32,701$18,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,062.02 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 63c | 15,969$10,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,902.12 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 36c | 13,983$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Over | 57c | 9,372$5,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,029.85 | 189 | 59.8%113 W · 76 L | +14.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 57c | 5,520$3,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,373.75 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 15c | 2,327$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.68 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 37c | 2,303$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.96 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 68c | 2,132$1,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.2 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 57c | 1,960$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.8 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 57c | 901.78$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.77 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 63c | 636.97$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.48 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 57c | 609.09$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 72c | 523.36$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.93 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 57c | 517$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.31 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 63c | 322.38$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.33 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 57c | 280.98$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 57c | 174.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.21 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4d…2008backed Over | 63c | 146.19$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e56…a7f6backed Under | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 57c | 116.63$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 57c | 116$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 57c | 93.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 57c | 79.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 57c | 75.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 38c | 72.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 60c | 68.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 57c | 64.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 57c | 64.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 27c | 64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 39c | 51.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 57c | 50.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 36c | 48.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…66f7backed Under | 42c | 44.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…3accbacked Under | 44c | 39.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Under | 44c | 37.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Over | 63c | 34.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Over | 57c | 33.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Over | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 247 | 63.6%157 W · 90 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 60c | 29.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 532 | 38.5%205 W · 327 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 65c | 23.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 57c | 21.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles DodgersSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 13.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.