MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4a61d0ae07462dc2cef6315516022de3de6484420c1a2b4751e3f54fc24abeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50d0…a6fcbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 77c | 3,000$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 34c | 2,600$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 23c | 2,091$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.93 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 23c | 1,266$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.83 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 23c | 879$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.17 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Seattle Mariners | 36c | 710.52$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.83 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf844…ee3cbacked Seattle Mariners | 63c | 462.98$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.68 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Seattle Mariners | 11c | 420.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 19c | 407.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Seattle Mariners | 31c | 280.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 24c | 131.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 122.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Seattle Mariners | 11c | 109$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 55c | 95.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 82.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4879…db19backed Seattle Mariners | 22c | 78.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Seattle Mariners | 79c | 72.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Seattle Mariners | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Mariners | 24c | 50.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Seattle Mariners | 75c | 42.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9de…47ffbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 26c | 40.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed Seattle Mariners | 78c | 30.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 74c | 29.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 75c | 27.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Seattle Mariners | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Seattle Mariners | 68c | 25.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 19.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Seattle Mariners | 63c | 18.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Seattle Mariners | 75c | 13.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Seattle Mariners | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles DodgersSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 13.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.