TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Dignitas vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Dignitas, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$296,254
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$335,188

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $296,254 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 267 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c3a…020bbacked Dignitas20c20,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0006861.8%42 W · 26 L+8.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+26.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9bad…861fbacked Dignitas25c19,826$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,949.793246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Dignitas20c10,528$2,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,104.9759450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Liquid74c9,311$6,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,394.171,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd812…2558backed Dignitas20c7,927$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.8721137%78 W · 133 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Team Liquid68c7,900$5,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,51691854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Dignitas37c7,343$2,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,731.531,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Dignitas20c7,232$1,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.491,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Team Liquid80c7,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4001,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d11…99cabacked Team Liquid80c6,716$5,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.081330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Liquid49c6,261$3,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,207.071,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Liquid65c6,249$4,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,175.3269539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Liquid77c5,870$4,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.291,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Dignitas28c4,910$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.423,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Team Liquid71c4,778$3,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,373.282,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Dignitas26c4,749$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.7267250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Team Liquid75c4,365$3,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.2642941.5%178 W · 251 L-24.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Liquid71c4,018$2,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.5385442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Liquid74c3,347$2,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.212,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x509d…0a6bbacked Team Liquid79c3,205$2,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.167056.9%381 W · 289 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid68c3,042$2,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.661,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Team Liquid75c2,985$2,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.2563546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed Team Liquid79c2,878$2,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.8928240.8%115 W · 167 L-16.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Dignitas57c2,778$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,582.4851044.1%225 W · 285 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Liquid79c2,727$2,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.7531153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Dignitas20c2,570$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.081,36837.7%516 W · 852 L-6.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Liquid72c2,449$1,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.331,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Dignitas45c2,211$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.8776953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Dignitas55c2,009$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.9546153.6%247 W · 214 L-24.4wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Dignitas43c1,981$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.091,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Dignitas21c1,905$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.0989943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Dignitas58c1,715$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.121,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Liquid67c1,571$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.073,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Team Liquid77c1,487$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.81,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Liquid57c1,480$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.3823751.5%122 W · 115 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Team Liquid69c1,446$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.246650.9%237 W · 229 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed Dignitas60c1,417$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.232160.7%195 W · 126 L+0.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf311…a179backed Team Liquid75c1,313$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.33933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-50.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed Team Liquid71c1,196$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.3850569.9%353 W · 152 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Dignitas37c1,118$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.4356650%283 W · 283 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Team Liquid46c1,107$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.611,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Dignitas54c1,080$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.381,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Dignitas36c1,077$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.421,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Liquid47c1,016$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.872,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Dignitas25c1,007$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.0556341%231 W · 332 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadd4…15c2backed Team Liquid49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51026443.6%115 W · 149 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team Liquid78c988.8$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.0660347.9%289 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed Team Liquid49c982.9$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.2535346.7%165 W · 188 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed Dignitas29c976.97$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.0722349.3%110 W · 113 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x22f9…f814backed Team Liquid75c933.33$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.332050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf445…703ebacked Team Liquid51c930.76$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4555343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed Dignitas52c869.48$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.4263161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd507…a6ddbacked Dignitas21c821.14$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.4430035%105 W · 195 L-21.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x53a5…55dfbacked Dignitas25c811.86$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.9743358.2%252 W · 181 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f9…db30backed Team Liquid45c800$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4407631.6%24 W · 52 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-32.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked Dignitas26c724.97$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.4932036.9%118 W · 202 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4912…b76fbacked Dignitas21c724.84$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.2210831.5%34 W · 74 L-10.5wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-25.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed Dignitas27c708.3$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.241,21858.1%708 W · 510 L+44.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Liquid70c667.71$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.4874250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…763bbacked Dignitas15c655.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9313541.5%56 W · 79 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71ce…cc35backed Team Liquid60c650.67$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.2712552%65 W · 60 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd1f…2bd0backed Dignitas22c646.79$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.293930.8%12 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Dignitas19c634.26$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.881,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Team Liquid79c624.94$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.241,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41a6…fbadbacked Team Liquid74c620.97$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.4510760.7%65 W · 42 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Liquid48c604.51$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.381,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Dignitas27c603.16$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.771,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33e9…895dbacked Dignitas53c589.76$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.572060%12 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed Dignitas22c582.11$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.2850647.2%239 W · 267 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc5…1135backed Team Liquid51c575.57$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.0344042%185 W · 255 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Team Liquid57c567.14$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.748165.4%53 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Team Liquid79c550$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.535243.2%152 W · 200 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Team Liquid26c548.44$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.871,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3072…4ca9backed Team Liquid74c517.17$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.9513647.1%64 W · 72 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Dignitas30c513.31$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.961,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid42c500.23$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.132,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Dignitas18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9037641.8%157 W · 219 L-18.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0833…bc88backed Team Liquid49c477.93$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.55757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Dignitas21c453.62$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2641945.1%189 W · 230 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Liquid80c451.78$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.3613761.3%84 W · 53 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Team Liquid70c444.56$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.118139.2%71 W · 110 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x826c…cd27backed Dignitas12c425.23$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.138245.1%37 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3682…07d6backed Team Liquid77c411.25$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.036573.8%48 W · 17 L+8.7wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+25.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb8c2…eef4backed Team Liquid60c409.51$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.69259.8%55 W · 37 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x566b…ceb9backed Team Liquid51c408.73$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.0414348.3%69 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Team Liquid70c400$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12094144.6%420 W · 521 L-2.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed Team Liquid75c394$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.554246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe37a…45dfbacked Team Liquid49c393.71$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.778938.2%34 W · 55 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed Dignitas38c392.66$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9969841.8%292 W · 406 L+46.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Team Liquid70c382.18$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.652462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Dignitas51c380.63$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.1295951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Dignitas51c377.08$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.181,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed Dignitas43c374.82$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.1616254.9%89 W · 73 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Dignitas18c372.68$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.781,72829.5%509 W · 1,219 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Dignitas32c365.84$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.751,13030%339 W · 791 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked Dignitas20c361.76$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.359344.1%41 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2eb…8979backed Dignitas54c360.15$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.4818347.5%87 W · 96 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aa1…a844backed Dignitas22c358.73$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6920238.6%78 W · 124 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed Dignitas42c354.79$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.139447.2%186 W · 208 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f7…aebbbacked Dignitas56c349.54$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.6925850.4%130 W · 128 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.