TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Dignitas vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dignitasof Dignitas, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$215,496
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$262,979

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,496 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd812…2558backed Dignitas31c9,736$3,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,713.9721137%78 W · 133 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed Dignitas62c9,123$5,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,468.5516254.9%89 W · 73 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Team Liquid62c8,005$4,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,987.291854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Dignitas45c7,950$3,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,403.0463546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Liquid45c7,108$3,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,196.8169539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Dignitas26c6,632$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,882.5267250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bad…861fbacked Dignitas24c6,581$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,970.763246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Liquid58c6,542$3,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,821.951,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Liquid62c6,488$3,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,996.491,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Dignitas29c5,078$1,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,605.11,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Dignitas40c4,811$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,867.131,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Liquid58c4,667$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,729.71,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d2…fe85backed Dignitas32c4,503$1,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,060.8615543.9%68 W · 87 L+0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid63c3,804$2,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,395.871,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Liquid57c3,487$2,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,003.6985442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x509d…0a6bbacked Team Liquid76c3,221$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,447.9667056.9%381 W · 289 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Dignitas47c3,138$1,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,665.763,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Liquid74c3,070$2,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,269.0496250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Dignitas26c3,058$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,272.362,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ff…a491backed Dignitas66c2,853$1,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.5218554.1%100 W · 85 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Liquid60c2,792$1,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.6639246.4%182 W · 210 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked Team Liquid74c2,500$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8505757.9%33 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid47c2,235$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.22,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed Team Liquid24c2,186$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.3935346.7%165 W · 188 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Dignitas54c2,033$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.4973237.7%276 W · 456 L-51.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Dignitas63c2,020$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.51,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Dignitas25c2,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.9889943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd961…35debacked Team Liquid74c2,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.9732442%136 W · 188 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Liquid60c1,879$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.693,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Team Liquid76c1,794$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.031,17066.2%774 W · 396 L+69.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d11…99cabacked Dignitas26c1,731$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,281.021330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Team Liquid62c1,724$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.1442941.5%178 W · 251 L-24.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c2…eef4backed Team Liquid77c1,613$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.399259.8%55 W · 37 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Dignitas27c1,546$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.371,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x092b…614ebacked Team Liquid68c1,434$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.0615644.2%69 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Team Liquid19c1,406$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.8825952.9%137 W · 122 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Dignitas30c1,343$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.3646153.6%247 W · 214 L-24.4wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Liquid58c1,329$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.461,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Dignitas27c1,315$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.372,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf311…a179backed Team Liquid75c1,313$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-50.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf2f9…db30backed Team Liquid70c1,265$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.047631.6%24 W · 52 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-32.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Dignitas26c1,224$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.6995951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Team Liquid73c1,221$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.331,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe80c…f3e6backed Dignitas28c1,217$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.7618043.9%79 W · 101 L+10.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf445…703ebacked Team Liquid16c1,209$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.895343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Liquid75c1,104$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.842,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3072…4ca9backed Dignitas39c1,072$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.6713647.1%64 W · 72 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed Dignitas27c1,064$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.0522349.3%110 W · 113 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed Team Liquid74c1,060$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.9650647.2%239 W · 267 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Dignitas70c1,026$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.0276953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Team Liquid74c1,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7401,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Dignitas25c954.86$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.158045%36 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed Dignitas26c907.13$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.1754246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Dignitas31c829.99$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.9956341%231 W · 332 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Team Liquid28c813.77$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.9410346.6%48 W · 55 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f6c…620bbacked Dignitas67c811.56$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.6332566.5%216 W · 109 L+26.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x33e9…895dbacked Team Liquid47c750$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.52060%12 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Team Liquid77c730.77$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.71,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb91…7db6backed Dignitas27c708.3$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.0630348.8%148 W · 155 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdb2…89f8backed Team Liquid14c674.92$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.492147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Team Liquid78c632.56$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.41,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Dignitas32c608.28$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.541945.1%189 W · 230 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7c0…f389backed Dignitas27c600$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43516936.1%61 W · 108 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe1e…6b97backed Dignitas39c587.94$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.926253.2%33 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Team Liquid13c577.02$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.131,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Liquid65c568.71$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.1574250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce12…814fbacked Dignitas78c564.63$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.573268.8%22 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Team Liquid75c555$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.251,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Dignitas23c550$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.535243.2%152 W · 200 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Team Liquid71c532.23$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.1715149%74 W · 77 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc5…1135backed Team Liquid15c512.41$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3944042%185 W · 255 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53a5…55dfbacked Dignitas35c503.9$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.8543358.2%252 W · 181 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Dignitas50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…f876backed Team Liquid71c500$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3555040%20 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed08…e082backed Dignitas72c497.87$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.3619860.1%119 W · 79 L-0.3wins0.00per pick60cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb8…e969backed Dignitas40c481.4$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.091,24152.7%654 W · 587 L+5.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Team Liquid75c474.29$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.091,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee0…ae41backed Team Liquid76c450$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3427664.5%49 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc67b…b3d8backed Team Liquid74c425.69$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.0124359.3%144 W · 99 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Team Liquid17c422.28$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.021,72829.5%509 W · 1,219 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb003…d962backed Dignitas24c422$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.7279151.8%410 W · 381 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2987…bfe9backed Dignitas41c421.4$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.117162%44 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Liquid26c407.12$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.512,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Dignitas34c392.01$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.7313761.3%84 W · 53 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed Team Liquid63c385.24$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.0763161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x566b…ceb9backed Team Liquid47c376.98$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.1814348.3%69 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Dignitas25c375.83$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.311,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Team Liquid20c371.54$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.791,57648.4%763 W · 813 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed Dignitas26c367.54$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.981,21858.1%708 W · 510 L+44.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3976…d68ebacked Dignitas58c367.53$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.4311630.2%35 W · 81 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Team Liquid35c361.34$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.71,63846.7%765 W · 873 L-26.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Dignitas22c358.36$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.5218121%38 W · 143 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x406d…5298backed Dignitas80c349.08$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1114363.6%91 W · 52 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72a9…5225backed Dignitas76c323.05$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.538739.1%34 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x595c…3b03backed Team Liquid64c313.6$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.139552.6%50 W · 45 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Dignitas32c299.75$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.8311532.2%37 W · 78 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f7…aebbbacked Dignitas66c297.18$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2725850.4%130 W · 128 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x292d…1321backed Team Liquid23c293.54$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.119743.3%42 W · 55 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d47…0ed2backed Team Liquid69c284.53$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Team Liquid53c281.89$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.331,13030%339 W · 791 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.