Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x117e9065f6b1d6abf5e8df4d2c2eb17f15a7dfde625b573d95623d80f05b2332
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 38c | 1,890$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.58 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 450$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 62c | 334.68$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.33 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 284.66$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 235$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.65 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 52c | 214$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.28 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 62c | 155$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 155$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 151.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 148.42$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 117.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 114.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 107.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 52c | 95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 62c | 57.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 77c | 53.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…3f8ebacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…1f4bbacked No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked No | 71c | 28.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 62c | 19.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fc…89f2backed No | 78c | 13.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 16?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 16?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 16?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.