Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x138dc6468813ee553c227b8f0d1487e9484cd303156f7333b5c94d3c31994108
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 32c | 1,618$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.06 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 521$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.23 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 400$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 54c | 388.94$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.49 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 74c | 200.19$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 46c | 191.28$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 9c | 149.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 148.42$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 128$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…675cbacked No | 59c | 126.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.37per pick | 52cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…88b9backed Yes | 44c | 106.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 98.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed No | 64c | 94.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 47c | 93.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 82.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 79.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked No | 67c | 70.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c5…ed20backed Yes | 39c | 69.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…ec87backed No | 52c | 68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 65.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 63.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 59.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 47c | 52.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22b3…0a22backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e70…c53ebacked Yes | 24c | 42.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 36c | 40.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 37.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 57c | 33.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0871…da45backed No | 61c | 32.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 43c | 28.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 59c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 42c | 26.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 25.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…192fbacked No | 56c | 20.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…21eabacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 60c | 19.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 16?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 16?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 16?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.