Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11891a9b68f4f34d8b75b970661368ab60032fb16bc874b068982dd95fd61b7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,402$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 538.28$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.47 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 252$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 224.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 196.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 195.51$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 74c | 155.89$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 136.46$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 70c | 100.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 72c | 97.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 93.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 91.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 33c | 90.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 76c | 76.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 69c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 73c | 69.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 29c | 69.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 71c | 67.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 64.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 25c | 59.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 73c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 73c | 56.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 53.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 79c | 50.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c0a7backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 47.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 30c | 45.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 44.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 71c | 40.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 74c | 33.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 33c | 32.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 27.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 71c | 23.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 71c | 22.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 75c | 22.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 76c | 21.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 72c | 19.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 18.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3530…d99abacked No | 71c | 14.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 75°F or below on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.