South American Leagues · resolved market
Cruzeiro EC vs. Barcelona SC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x118c6e16a1bdea493fa4fc3a3c7944f2256d2ae045bc79fb0aabded6a8f4ecda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6255…a29bbacked Under | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 76c | 1,579$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.54 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 16c | 1,548$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.63 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Under | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 2cpaid | +525%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c6…c063backed Under | 24c | 1,250$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Under | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 14c | 832.91$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 188 | 28.7%54 W · 134 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Under | 2c | 759.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 3cpaid | +837.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Under | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +240.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 727.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 24c | 690.29$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.67 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 15c | 625.51$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…0a9bbacked Under | 18c | 588.24$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.94 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 19c | 520$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 75c | 450.5$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.62 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Under | 24c | 416.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 124 | 14.5%18 W · 106 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…2928backed Over | 77c | 389.23$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 19c | 248.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 26c | 240$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Over | 79c | 237.69$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 106 | 18.9%20 W · 86 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 76c | 201$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…a2d3backed Under | 20c | 190.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 21c | 160.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…93e8backed Under | 11c | 134.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…6d59backed Over | 77c | 132.68$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 26c | 125.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 17c | 118.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 77c | 94.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…0933backed Over | 75c | 79.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc7…43e5backed Under | 34c | 60.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Under | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 75c | 59.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 76c | 52.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 76c | 52.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…3e18backed Under | 25c | 52.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 23c | 49.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2180…c943backed Over | 80c | 34.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 76c | 26.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 79c | 23.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2503…8285backed Over | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…2bc4backed Over | 80c | 16.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Barcelona SC: O/U 1.5this page
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Barcelona SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Barcelona SC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Barcelona SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Barcelona SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Barcelona SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Barcelona SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)Cruzeiro EC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.