TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,201
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,907

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,201 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes1c3,234$33 inLost-$33.26419.8%4 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-48.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbdc…e382backed Yes1c2,309$17 inLost-$16.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57bc…c211backed Yes23c562.22$127 inLost-$127.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked Yes22c440.8$99 inLost-$98.8110330.1%31 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ab…8a17backed Yes10c386.47$38 inLost-$37.91735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4ec…ed05backed Yes7c322.48$21 inLost-$21.27520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-59.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No76c256.21$195 inWon+$60.922160.2%133 W · 88 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes25c247.16$63 inLost-$62.5324732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No76c230.96$175 inWon+$55.582,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ede…d5bcbacked Yes6c214.98$12 inLost-$12.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes14c207$30 inLost-$29.8479735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No75c200$149 inWon+$50.6420857.2%119 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c54…f0bbbacked Yes28c123.8$35 inLost-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No78c110$86 inWon+$23.913452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes18c98.21$18 inLost-$1813511.9%16 W · 119 L+0.3wins0.00per pick12cpaid+37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea2…2d33backed No75c21$16 inWon+$5.261957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.