Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e383b783e385df8c33d961114e8b53bf2c3e6233f0c17ab7347dbcb6caf9e5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 0c | 13,479$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61be…c908backed No | 1c | 8,515$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce6…6069backed No | 0c | 5,853$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b11…5a66backed No | 0c | 4,842$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed No | 0c | 4,140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd9…97a1backed No | 0c | 3,643$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d9…d694backed No | 0c | 2,750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 65c | 2,615$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.45 | 642 | 39.1%251 W · 391 L | +48.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd39…b4c1backed No | 1c | 2,274$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…5f77backed No | 1c | 1,944$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a5…6fecbacked No | 1c | 1,501$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 1c | 1,472$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 463 | 8.2%38 W · 425 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed Yes | 69c | 1,307$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.1 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22ce…7f27backed No | 40c | 1,006$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bcfdbacked No | 1c | 928.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked No | 38c | 617.16$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.91 | 79 | 15.2%12 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 455.46$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.81 | 2,589 | 13.1%340 W · 2,249 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…b159backed No | 39c | 402.86$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 339.84$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.04 | 427 | 28.1%120 W · 307 L | -38.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 16c | 338.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 25c | 249.15$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 232 | 60.3%140 W · 92 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 247.37$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 202 | 53.5%108 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 55c | 218.57$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.41 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 225 | 57.8%130 W · 95 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 12c | 193.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8234…bfd0backed No | 11c | 188.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 184.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 824 | 35.8%295 W · 529 L | -38.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 9c | 171.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 229 | 58.1%133 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53a…62fbbacked Yes | 77c | 168.86$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…3868backed No | 23c | 161$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 31c | 145$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed No | 44c | 117$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…20a4backed Yes | 54c | 89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked No | 18c | 88.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 195 | 29.7%58 W · 137 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…6bd2backed Yes | 45c | 88.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…0432backed Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…7e36backed No | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…ba7bbacked No | 47c | 73.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 63.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 529 | 45.9%243 W · 286 L | -19.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -72%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…ff6ebacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…04e3backed Yes | 54c | 48.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…64f8backed Yes | 64c | 47.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 41.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 403 | 19.1%77 W · 326 L | -57.7wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…f3a4backed Yes | 71c | 38.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 264 | 61.7%163 W · 101 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…6178backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 71c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 151 | 75.5%114 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.