World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11e93b410656009410c44975e5ef5bed709bbc748294de6c589838865acdf704
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 58c | 954$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 37c | 914.46$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.67 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 6c | 630.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b82…73c3backed No | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 46c | 239.51$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.62 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 42c | 229$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.18 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 42c | 140$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked Yes | 43c | 92.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 58c | 85.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked Yes | 43c | 85.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed Yes | 43c | 82.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 81.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…ca40backed No | 63c | 56.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 42c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 53.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b6…92d5backed No | 56c | 53.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 49.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 49.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 43c | 49.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 39.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 48c | 34.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 52c | 34.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 58c | 33.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked No | 74c | 32.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…ac39backed Yes | 36c | 31.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 23.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked Yes | 51c | 22.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…4c65backed Yes | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…ec39backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed No | 66c | 15.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on July 7?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on July 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on July 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.