Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11fa71c7bcf043cfb6afae81a1c591908d992e86f22007af1a91782f3027532c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 16c | 528.79$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 13c | 298$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 58c | 287.98$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.03 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 137.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 134.45$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 54c | 114.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 111.8$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 109.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 107.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 99.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 24c | 97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 65c | 86.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 84.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 17c | 81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 13c | 79.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 78.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 63c | 78.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 24c | 75.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 13c | 75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked No | 64c | 41.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 53c | 40.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…070fbacked Yes | 31c | 37.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 42c | 34.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 75c | 30.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 20.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.