TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,249
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,509

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,249 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d98…261ebacked Yes12c1,148$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.66750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No55c693.35$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.4336057.5%207 W · 153 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes14c654.8$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4436648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No73c625.11$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.5857044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes41c391.13$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.3440265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No8c379.03$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.0261820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes21c304.65$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.964,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes21c296.96$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.224,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No72c272.73$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.6512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes9c262.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0596015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes37c249.75$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.666,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes42c199.05$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4722849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes42c195.55$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.313461.2%82 W · 52 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes22c193.14$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.818,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes15c186.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.632,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes20c178.5$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.418629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No47c156.94$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.491,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes25c156.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.718,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No63c152.16$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.731,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes26c144.08$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes26c142.65$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9633232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes24c132.12$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2458732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No11c120$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.713,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No74c106$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.527156.3%40 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes28c105$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.216641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c103.02$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.799,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No80c100.95$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.691,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes31c99.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3172125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa595…cdf1backed Yes77c99.19$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7615561.9%96 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes24c96.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.142,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes32c94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.632,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No43c92$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.665,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No31c87.18$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.887,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes46c84.65$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes12c84.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022446.4%104 W · 120 L+31.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf75f…b458backed No41c81.49$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.324452.3%23 W · 21 L+6.1wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+12.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54a0…4134backed Yes39c77.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014823%34 W · 114 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes25c76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.332,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes24c75.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1876936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No59c71.92$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.212,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No44c70.25$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.391,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No75c69.08$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2742160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No75c68$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.312,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No77c65.91$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2298571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No73c64.12$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.24,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No72c62.34$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.463,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fa5…7621backed No42c60.75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.251369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+29.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.93,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5948…2d49backed No25c60$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455715.8%9 W · 48 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8a…64f7backed Yes24c58.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No72c58.16$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.512,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No74c52.37$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4668867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes25c51.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.692,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1845253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes39c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.567633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked Yes35c46.51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2842151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No61c45.79$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.863,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No40c44.7$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.762,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes28c43.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2317536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No31c42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.872,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No74c40.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5597570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No62c39.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.243663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c39.98$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.592,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No62c39.25$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9287629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked No75c35.42$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9913274.2%98 W · 34 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes49c35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2533962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No63c33.21$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.422,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65e6…3289backed Yes33c32.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.762927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No44c30.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.32,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad43…196bbacked No62c30.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.411070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.63,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No65c29.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.553353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No61c28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.921,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes40c26.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.641,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.671,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes44c24.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1139346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3925…42fcbacked No80c24.11$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.826384.1%53 W · 10 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick71cpaid+20.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No75c23.07$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7762770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No77c20.26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6627376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.61,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No77c19.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.461,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf89…326dbacked No61c19.04$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.361662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No68c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.123,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98af…dd79backed No63c15.88$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.885457.4%31 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b08…ab3ebacked No78c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.8611650%58 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.