Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe37dd7133f0883864a0b5938bece18c9137ead0c8cc79f6eef500edfa7a101fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 75c | 475.14$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.38 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 220.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 218.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 31c | 182$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.15 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 28c | 162.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 138.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 133.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 117.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 113.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 111.87$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 111.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 32c | 109.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 90.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 36c | 84.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 78.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 77.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 76.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 75.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 20c | 74.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 23c | 73.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 28c | 71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 46c | 61.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…3289backed Yes | 18c | 61.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 78c | 57.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…2959backed No | 52c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 66c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 52.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 29c | 52.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 69c | 48.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 66c | 48.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 39c | 46.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 39c | 44.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 59c | 40.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 50c | 33.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 38c | 32.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 68c | 28.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 51c | 23.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 66c | 22.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 67c | 22.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…c3b5backed No | 74c | 21.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 20.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 18.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 16.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…293cbacked No | 66c | 15.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.