Tennis · resolved market
ITF W15 Tianjin 4 Women: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Priska Nugroho
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11fc2325db49e657b1bddeb0d02c2233d74e51f57f4c3d3776ea458cbd54d30a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Priska Nugrohoof Natsumi Kawaguchi, Priska Nugroho
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Natsumi Kawaguchi | 48c | 408.51$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.7 | 597 | 38.2%228 W · 369 L | -27.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Natsumi Kawaguchi | 49c | 387.75$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.09 | 1,252 | 38.8%486 W · 766 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Priska Nugroho | 53c | 383.26$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.46 | 7,745 | 50.6%3,916 W · 3,829 L | +93.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Natsumi Kawaguchi | 53c | 366.25$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.78 | 380 | 47.1%179 W · 201 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Natsumi Kawaguchi | 51c | 325.73$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.79 | 737 | 38.8%286 W · 451 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…3684backed Priska Nugroho | 63c | 295.02$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.31 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Priska Nugroho | 46c | 280.26$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.34 | 1,002 | 50.2%503 W · 499 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6535…dd25backed Priska Nugroho | 44c | 214.61$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Priska Nugroho | 50c | 197.72$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 3,631 | 54.9%1,995 W · 1,636 L | +110.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…6118backed Priska Nugroho | 66c | 152.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 239 | 65.3%156 W · 83 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Natsumi Kawaguchi | 50c | 126$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 2,111 | 56.1%1,184 W · 927 L | +42.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Priska Nugroho | 77c | 104.77$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Natsumi Kawaguchi | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 1,895 | 48.1%911 W · 984 L | +15.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Natsumi Kawaguchi | 46c | 72.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 1,624 | 54.4%883 W · 741 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Natsumi Kawaguchi | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 6,685 | 36.9%2,466 W · 4,219 L | -96.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Natsumi Kawaguchi | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 5,377 | 48.7%2,617 W · 2,760 L | +16.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Natsumi Kawaguchi | 35c | 34.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 189 | 39.2%74 W · 115 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Priska Nugroho | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 6,411 | 54.4%3,486 W · 2,925 L | +283.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Priska Nugroho | 64c | 26.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 726 | 61.8%449 W · 277 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8a83backed Priska Nugroho | 57c | 26.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…2465backed Priska Nugroho | 64c | 24.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Priska Nugroho | 64c | 23.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 304 | 65.1%198 W · 106 L | +20.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Natsumi Kawaguchi | 51c | 20.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 6,419 | 46.4%2,978 W · 3,441 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…b543backed Priska Nugroho | 51c | 19.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 241 | 47.3%114 W · 127 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF W15 Tianjin 4 Women: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Priska Nugrohothis page
- ITF W15 Tianjin 4 Women: Completed Match: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Priska NugrohoYes won
- Kawaguchi vs. Nugroho: Match O/U 21.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.