MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x120b621ac022453131c392af5e98babab9678d72b0fc5f7786cd5c8b8b97237e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 4,116$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 3,036$1,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.21 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 1,449$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.28 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 1,067$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.28 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 969.32$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.62 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 426.23$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.44 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 340$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 296.36$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.62 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 294.59$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 236.98$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 181.63$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 156.09$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…7aa6backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 152$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 131$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 104$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 70c | 103.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 98.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 94.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 92.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Washington Nationals | 73c | 82.74$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Miami Marlins | 23c | 63.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed Washington Nationals | 79c | 63.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 58.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 56.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 54.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins | 29c | 50.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Miami Marlins | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 47.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 46.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 41.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 40.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 40.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 35c | 34.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989d…5ca1backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 26.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 25.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 22.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 20.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Washington Nationals | 77c | 19.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Washington Nationals | 77c | 19.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Washington Nationals | 76c | 19.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Washington Nationals | 69c | 18.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Washington Nationals | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.