MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46d4552339124c90c079332cdf844701677e5b7e8bea3683fc528bd17ec06330
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 53c | 8,800$4,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,136 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Over | 46c | 6,440$2,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,962.4 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 54c | 4,171$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,930.93 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 4,131$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 3,256$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.86 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 47c | 3,223$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca4e…f97ebacked Under | 54c | 2,800$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 77c | 2,774$2,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…7a19backed Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Over | 47c | 1,271$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.39 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 1,076$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.16 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Over | 47c | 960.5$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.44 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 54c | 942.55$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.57 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 55c | 810$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.6 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 57c | 687.03$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.62 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 57c | 686.87$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.46 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 47c | 614.89$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 18c | 499.21$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 488.86$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.61 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 401.7$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.86 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 54c | 231.2$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.35 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 46c | 212.96$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 46c | 184.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 54c | 160.01$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 22c | 145.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Under | 34c | 122.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 107$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 23c | 102.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 77c | 91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 46c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 59c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed Under | 53c | 74.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 45c | 65.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 66c | 56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 54c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Under | 55c | 41.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 41c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 77c | 22.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsWashington Nationals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.