Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x123452e2d5566f94eda823e102b08e03605462e525a0088efca47bc676768207
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 524.57$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 37c | 390.71$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.71 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 5c | 316.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 21c | 289.69$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.67 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 203.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 54c | 186.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.09 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 22c | 174.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.6 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 49c | 159.77$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 66c | 131.01$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 41c | 129.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 119.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…2d2bbacked Yes | 72c | 117.89$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 108.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 25c | 103$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 74c | 102.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 101.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 23c | 101.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 99.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 95.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 49c | 93.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 91.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 62c | 77.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 74c | 65.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 46c | 65.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 64.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 56c | 62.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 63c | 59.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 58.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 77c | 51.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 50c | 49.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 47.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 67c | 46.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 45.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…8046backed No | 76c | 42.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…8652backed Yes | 24c | 42.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 42c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 50c | 36.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 51c | 36.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 37c | 33.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 78c | 30.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 73c | 27.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 27.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 26.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 20.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb5…3253backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 16.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 16.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 77c | 16.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 100-101°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.