CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: OverKnight vs shimmer (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship North American Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1238c49732f8cef7c9164ff19f8513cac04a4455273cd9d0c8ece33555c57d62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- shimmerof OverKnight, shimmer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x928a…8044backed shimmer | 62c | 4,824$3,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820.06 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d1…c1c3backed shimmer | 49c | 3,819$1,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,930.23 | 55 | 74.5%41 W · 14 L | +10.6wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6d22…4b50backed shimmer | 59c | 3,394$2,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.93 | 205 | 54.1%111 W · 94 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked OverKnight | 43c | 2,647$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdacb…c4fabacked OverKnight | 50c | 2,625$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed OverKnight | 45c | 2,452$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.98 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…a898backed shimmer | 53c | 1,990$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.03 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed OverKnight | 29c | 1,713$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.09 | 332 | 37%123 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf981…44b7backed shimmer | 57c | 1,134$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.47 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed OverKnight | 39c | 1,024$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.98 | 399 | 46.4%185 W · 214 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed OverKnight | 50c | 991$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.5 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed OverKnight | 43c | 942.51$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed OverKnight | 8c | 796.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…9e5ebacked OverKnight | 49c | 685$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.65 | 100 | 62%62 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…4d14backed shimmer | 61c | 653.36$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.36 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed shimmer | 59c | 644.19$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.44 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked OverKnight | 40c | 619.65$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.28 | 635 | 41.9%266 W · 369 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d6…6db0backed OverKnight | 41c | 536.59$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed OverKnight | 45c | 463.85$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.73 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed OverKnight | 41c | 403.11$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…63aabacked OverKnight | 5c | 362.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed OverKnight | 7c | 334.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 250 | 42.8%107 W · 143 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…7d23backed OverKnight | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd441…87febacked OverKnight | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked OverKnight | 8c | 283.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 249 | 39.8%99 W · 150 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…dc29backed OverKnight | 10c | 268.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 486 | 35.4%172 W · 314 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed OverKnight | 28c | 259.26$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 231 | 58.4%135 W · 96 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…6eacbacked shimmer | 61c | 221.01$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +22.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…838bbacked shimmer | 71c | 213.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x532f…e13fbacked OverKnight | 39c | 205.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfe…5c6cbacked OverKnight | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked OverKnight | 47c | 187.69$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.77 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked OverKnight | 12c | 183$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked OverKnight | 9c | 173.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…6003backed OverKnight | 33c | 164.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed shimmer | 77c | 161.75$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8562…0a61backed OverKnight | 39c | 158.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5e…1468backed OverKnight | 39c | 153.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed OverKnight | 39c | 148$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 442 | 44.1%195 W · 247 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a06…1391backed shimmer | 65c | 130$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed OverKnight | 50c | 126$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e40ebacked OverKnight | 28c | 125.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…471fbacked OverKnight | 44c | 114.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 357 | 52.9%189 W · 168 L | +22.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…2ab5backed OverKnight | 41c | 91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 325 | 44.3%144 W · 181 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8b…7a07backed shimmer | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 211 | 59.7%126 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee4c…9278backed shimmer | 53c | 87.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…d07ebacked OverKnight | 41c | 78.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1174…059abacked shimmer | 66c | 75.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…cbaebacked shimmer | 59c | 58.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…28bbbacked OverKnight | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…4bbabacked shimmer | 69c | 54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 99 | 70.7%70 W · 29 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6d…ad11backed OverKnight | 25c | 50.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked shimmer | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 363 | 34.2%124 W · 239 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed shimmer | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 991 | 48.3%479 W · 512 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed shimmer | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4025…8a80backed OverKnight | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed OverKnight | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed OverKnight | 46c | 38.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed shimmer | 65c | 36.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 640 | 58.1%372 W · 268 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed OverKnight | 61c | 35.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed shimmer | 62c | 33.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 205 | 56.6%116 W · 89 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe245…3bc8backed OverKnight | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…c2b6backed OverKnight | 47c | 31.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed shimmer | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 133 | 24.8%33 W · 100 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed OverKnight | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: OverKnight vs shimmer (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship North American Group Athis page
- Counter-Strike: OverKnight vs shimmer - Map 1 Winnershimmer won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.