Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Daniel Altmaier vs Marin Cilic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x124deabf4a0c6c2f1502162b750b034ddf7a4ff87a6bf642c9f2d58f9d17ae15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cilicof Altmaier, Cilic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x779a…ca34backed Cilic | 64c | 18,440$11,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,590.56 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Cilic | 65c | 10,099$6,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,540.4 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Altmaier | 37c | 8,898$3,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,309.24 | 182 | 37.9%69 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Altmaier | 36c | 6,807$2,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.82 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Altmaier | 35c | 3,819$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.68 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Altmaier | 10c | 3,809$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.66 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Altmaier | 36c | 3,333$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.88 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Altmaier | 36c | 3,312$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.12 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Altmaier | 36c | 3,170$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.32 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…49f8backed Altmaier | 5c | 2,858$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 198 | 35.4%70 W · 128 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Altmaier | 35c | 2,241$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.71 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Cilic | 63c | 1,210$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.75 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Altmaier | 36c | 1,111$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.46 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Altmaier | 4c | 955.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Altmaier | 6c | 795.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Cilic | 63c | 756$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.72 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ac…fd51backed Altmaier | 37c | 745.95$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 284 | 44.7%127 W · 157 L | +13.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Altmaier | 35c | 643.9$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.37 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed Altmaier | 13c | 595$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Altmaier | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe8…3549backed Cilic | 65c | 498.46$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.46 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf74d…9930backed Cilic | 66c | 460.64$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.64 | 261 | 58.2%152 W · 109 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Altmaier | 3c | 450$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Cilic | 63c | 443.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.28 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Altmaier | 34c | 420$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Altmaier | 4c | 408.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Cilic | 63c | 396$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.52 | 179 | 33%59 W · 120 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Altmaier | 32c | 392.41$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.53 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Altmaier | 30c | 333.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Altmaier | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Altmaier | 36c | 299.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Altmaier | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Altmaier | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…b1e5backed Altmaier | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…8b69backed Altmaier | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2352…4c5abacked Altmaier | 37c | 108$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Altmaier | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Cilic | 71c | 95.42$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Altmaier | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Cilic | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Cilic | 77c | 69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…8115backed Altmaier | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Altmaier | 37c | 62.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15e…8cacbacked Altmaier | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 61.5%131 W · 82 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x637c…788ebacked Cilic | 67c | 55.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Altmaier | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…3f46backed Cilic | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 50 | 74%37 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Altmaier | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cilic | 76c | 43.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…ee51backed Altmaier | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Cilic | 67c | 36.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 364 | 64.3%234 W · 130 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Altmaier | 37c | 35.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5815…ed96backed Cilic | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Cilic | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5618…be67backed Cilic | 63c | 16.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Daniel Altmaier vs Marin Cilicthis page
- Altmaier vs. Cilic: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Altmaier vs. Cilic: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Set Handicap: Cilic (-2.5) vs Altmaier (+2.5)Cilic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.