Tennis · resolved market
ITF W15 Tianjin 2 Women: Xiran Lan vs Yushan Shao
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x125d286632bb8d9bd0f4dfab6f7d666752ba13eba96b9654a6803fad14724153
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yushan Shaoof Xiran Lan, Yushan Shao
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yushan Shao | 76c | 4,446$3,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.47 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Xiran Lan | 23c | 4,015$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.48 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…1a16backed Xiran Lan | 33c | 1,714$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Xiran Lan | 12c | 1,438$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.02 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Xiran Lan | 16c | 1,101$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.1 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Xiran Lan | 21c | 663.06$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.08 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Xiran Lan | 17c | 499.37$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.06 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Xiran Lan | 14c | 456.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…7d23backed Xiran Lan | 15c | 445$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…5858backed Xiran Lan | 11c | 335.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 230 | 30.4%70 W · 160 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…af4fbacked Xiran Lan | 24c | 231.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 277 | 24.9%69 W · 208 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Yushan Shao | 78c | 211$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 240 | 52.5%126 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yushan Shao | 75c | 164.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Xiran Lan | 25c | 156.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Yushan Shao | 56c | 153.57$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07d…4ee1backed Yushan Shao | 78c | 126$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Xiran Lan | 25c | 112.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Xiran Lan | 23c | 104.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Xiran Lan | 16c | 102.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…f02dbacked Yushan Shao | 78c | 95.69$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…fce6backed Xiran Lan | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…391dbacked Yushan Shao | 76c | 69.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0c…47eabacked Yushan Shao | 71c | 58.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe37f…6635backed Yushan Shao | 75c | 46.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yushan Shao | 75c | 44.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Yushan Shao | 78c | 42.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 427 | 48.7%208 W · 219 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yushan Shao | 76c | 35.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 423 | 59.1%250 W · 173 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…a63ebacked Yushan Shao | 76c | 30.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…e2eabacked Yushan Shao | 75c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1367…9a3abacked Yushan Shao | 71c | 17.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF W15 Tianjin 2 Women: Xiran Lan vs Yushan Shaothis page
- ITF W15 Tianjin 2 Women: Completed Match: Xiran Lan vs Yushan ShaoYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.