Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12684204ee5cec63a0fc28001d238b42844f241f88d0a2356bdea91cd6429929
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RED Canidsof RED Canids, Fluxo W7M
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed Fluxo W7M | 41c | 250.64$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 484 | 40.5%196 W · 288 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…cd6bbacked RED Canids | 60c | 241.67$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Fluxo W7M | 40c | 236.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.67 | 1,267 | 37.7%478 W · 789 L | +35.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Fluxo W7M | 49c | 196.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked RED Canids | 59c | 170$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 326 | 50.3%164 W · 162 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe592…74adbacked Fluxo W7M | 41c | 170$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed RED Canids | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 336 | 42.3%142 W · 194 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd89c…2d1fbacked RED Canids | 59c | 107.9$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 181 | 59.1%107 W · 74 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…a7d5backed RED Canids | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 253 | 45.8%116 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb3…9e69backed RED Canids | 61c | 65.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Fluxo W7M | 39c | 45.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…476abacked RED Canids | 59c | 44.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 187 | 56.7%106 W · 81 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO5) - CBLOL PlayoffsRED Canids won
- LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 WinnerFluxo W7M won
- LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 WinnerRED Canids won
- LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 3 WinnerRED Canids won
- LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 4 WinnerRED Canids won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 3?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.