TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 4 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
RED Canidsof RED Canids, Fluxo W7M
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$105,820
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$120,929

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,820 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9b49…04a8backed RED Canids71c7,517$5,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,201.8939964.4%257 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Fluxo W7M36c7,001$2,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,506.071,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Fluxo W7M41c6,656$2,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,718.351,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed RED Canids55c6,332$3,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,827.2551044.1%225 W · 285 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2f3…37f9backed RED Canids63c4,295$2,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.8715356.9%87 W · 66 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked RED Canids69c2,965$2,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.5967553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed RED Canids60c2,928$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.2575342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Fluxo W7M39c2,628$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.641,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6204…0b06backed Fluxo W7M40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00032440.4%131 W · 193 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Fluxo W7M41c2,384$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.5967760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Fluxo W7M30c2,201$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.321,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5903…d02bbacked Fluxo W7M33c2,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66014327.3%39 W · 104 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1ef…4a40backed Fluxo W7M26c1,970$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.88834.1%30 W · 58 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed Fluxo W7M26c1,939$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50043539.5%172 W · 263 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed RED Canids56c1,618$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.5886943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Fluxo W7M42c1,583$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.152,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed RED Canids60c1,517$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.381,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x109b…935fbacked RED Canids80c1,495$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.8728261%172 W · 110 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…3668backed Fluxo W7M28c1,335$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.811246.4%52 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed RED Canids64c1,221$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.561,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked RED Canids60c1,135$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.0590348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea7e…2c67backed Fluxo W7M1c1,120$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.245051.6%232 W · 218 L+24.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked Fluxo W7M50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50083560.8%508 W · 327 L+45.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Fluxo W7M13c991.66$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.689347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Fluxo W7M47c988.9$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.7852848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Fluxo W7M29c958.08$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.671,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed RED Canids55c910.73$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.7354246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0960…5adcbacked RED Canids58c855.53$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.5312642.1%53 W · 73 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8e0…0e69backed Fluxo W7M20c755.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505244.2%23 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Fluxo W7M30c711.75$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.961,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7329…bebdbacked Fluxo W7M58c708.84$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41043453.5%232 W · 202 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x566b…ceb9backed Fluxo W7M30c650$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19514348.3%69 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked RED Canids62c635.04$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.3224445.1%110 W · 134 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Fluxo W7M39c625.45$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.761,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed RED Canids71c543.69$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.231,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Fluxo W7M70c530.89$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.3486251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Fluxo W7M44c521.99$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.71,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Fluxo W7M30c507.49$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.3737548%180 W · 195 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Fluxo W7M27c499.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13546650.9%237 W · 229 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked RED Canids43c497.17$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.21,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x53a5…55dfbacked Fluxo W7M54c463.72$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.5143358.2%252 W · 181 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaed5…981dbacked Fluxo W7M30c458.71$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6144245.9%203 W · 239 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x398d…b8d6backed Fluxo W7M36c455.19$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16264451.2%330 W · 314 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1953…965dbacked Fluxo W7M34c452.84$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.3840%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed RED Canids53c412.38$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.0232253.1%171 W · 151 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Fluxo W7M30c367.57$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.8176142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Fluxo W7M33c359$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3346452.4%243 W · 221 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb003…d62dbacked Fluxo W7M23c350$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.58243.9%36 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ad…0e38backed Fluxo W7M37c349.91$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13017953.6%96 W · 83 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed RED Canids36c348.93$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.471,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Fluxo W7M27c344.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.732,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Fluxo W7M28c337.86$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4995041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa233…af5bbacked Fluxo W7M21c330.02$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010639.6%42 W · 64 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8165…ba12backed Fluxo W7M30c314.2$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2618248.4%88 W · 94 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Fluxo W7M49c304.91$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.1885652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Fluxo W7M41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12316339.3%64 W · 99 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked RED Canids59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1231,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa497…7891backed Fluxo W7M43c277.68$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0810959.6%65 W · 44 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed RED Canids55c275.99$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.1450647.2%239 W · 267 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3333…3c23backed Fluxo W7M29c275.86$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8028042.5%119 W · 161 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9a0…335bbacked Fluxo W7M37c265.15$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc480…60afbacked Fluxo W7M46c261.46$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12039747.9%190 W · 207 L+1.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3cd…9f3ebacked Fluxo W7M25c260.33$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0415257.9%88 W · 64 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35b7…fbcfbacked Fluxo W7M51c250$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.527367%183 W · 90 L+26.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+20.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed RED Canids69c249.99$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.51,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Fluxo W7M33c249.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.59545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Fluxo W7M31c249.98$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.241,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…b805backed Fluxo W7M39c240$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.611840.7%48 W · 70 L-11.3wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd991…c1dabacked Fluxo W7M47c239.19$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.566538.5%25 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed Fluxo W7M13c236.79$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5669841.8%292 W · 406 L+46.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Fluxo W7M13c230.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2924…2385backed Fluxo W7M17c220.5$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2616142.9%69 W · 92 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Fluxo W7M46c218.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10041945.1%189 W · 230 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd9d…f409backed RED Canids78c215.29$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3114930.9%46 W · 103 L-11.8wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Fluxo W7M30c210$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631,21839.9%486 W · 732 L-65.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69b9…a5d5backed RED Canids63c201.59$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5927247.8%130 W · 142 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked RED Canids55c199.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9033125.7%85 W · 246 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cd2…34e9backed Fluxo W7M30c195.74$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7277545%349 W · 426 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked RED Canids61c195.62$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.2995048.5%461 W · 489 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Fluxo W7M53c193$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8974250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8b…c9ccbacked Fluxo W7M40c187.5$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510851.9%56 W · 52 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d51…d971backed RED Canids62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2967057.5%385 W · 285 L+24.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69e6…b9f9backed Fluxo W7M27c150$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4062743.9%275 W · 352 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac4…7310backed RED Canids80c150$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1613854.3%75 W · 63 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Fluxo W7M35c145.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.312,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdaa…ed87backed Fluxo W7M69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005850%29 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Fluxo W7M37c132.19$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.871,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Fluxo W7M28c124.83$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.342,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e42…f22abacked RED Canids52c124.44$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5329942.8%128 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b2…2745backed Fluxo W7M24c118.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2912030.8%37 W · 83 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee9c…c449backed Fluxo W7M13c118.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3952743.5%229 W · 298 L+32.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Fluxo W7M37c107.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed RED Canids65c106$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.11,37248.6%667 W · 705 L+57.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed RED Canids77c105.65$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.31,64344.4%730 W · 913 L-42.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Fluxo W7M38c100.59$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4457947.3%274 W · 305 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb829…4f5ebacked RED Canids50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5014628.8%42 W · 104 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf725…fc53backed Fluxo W7M30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43dc…e505backed Fluxo W7M38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387060%42 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Fluxo W7M31c95.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9375150.7%381 W · 370 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbafa…02e0backed Fluxo W7M37c93.31$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4680150.7%406 W · 395 L+48.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.