TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fluxo W7Mof RED Canids, Fluxo W7M
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,696
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,696 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef26…05babacked Fluxo W7M36c4,172$1,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,661.061,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96e4…bb22backed RED Canids75c3,130$2,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,355.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked Fluxo W7M71c2,139$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.9283560.8%508 W · 327 L+45.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Fluxo W7M66c1,971$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.981,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0960…5adcbacked Fluxo W7M21c1,664$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.112642.1%53 W · 73 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed RED Canids75c1,403$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.481,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed RED Canids73c1,326$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.731,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked Fluxo W7M33c1,217$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.8567553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed RED Canids32c1,190$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38486251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked RED Canids67c1,152$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.1414448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed RED Canids42c1,085$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.7589347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed RED Canids44c1,074$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.0919041.1%78 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed Fluxo W7M19c1,074$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.3569841.8%292 W · 406 L+46.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e78…29d0backed RED Canids64c1,064$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.524248.3%117 W · 125 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe432…934abacked Fluxo W7M41c1,022$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.647237.5%27 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Fluxo W7M20c1,012$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.781,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Fluxo W7M29c953.76$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.491,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed RED Canids71c933.8$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.982,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed RED Canids35c905.45$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.071,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked RED Canids74c890.61$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.0570456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked RED Canids2c807.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5840916.1%66 W · 343 L-0.8wins0.00per pick16cpaid+23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed RED Canids38c788.59$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.782836.4%301 W · 527 L-41.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Fluxo W7M25c748.3$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.2243442.4%184 W · 250 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed Fluxo W7M26c701.92$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.4232253.1%171 W · 151 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Fluxo W7M36c600$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3841,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed RED Canids73c569.82$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.861,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed RED Canids71c563.38$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40054246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Fluxo W7M26c532$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.981,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Fluxo W7M33c503.84$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.6140145.4%182 W · 219 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee9c…c449backed Fluxo W7M20c503.75$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.7752743.5%229 W · 298 L+32.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75c7…909dbacked Fluxo W7M20c501.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.754247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked RED Canids80c500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Fluxo W7M26c497.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.982,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf9e4…c4b2backed RED Canids79c485$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.8226861.6%165 W · 103 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Fluxo W7M30c484.99$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.22,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Fluxo W7M33c475$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.2574637.9%283 W · 463 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Fluxo W7M24c457.12$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.152,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc400…21a7backed Fluxo W7M32c430$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.5523149.8%115 W · 116 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Fluxo W7M25c400$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed RED Canids77c390.42$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,21858.1%708 W · 510 L+44.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked RED Canids74c382.79$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.2618953.4%101 W · 88 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Fluxo W7M38c340.8$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.151,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc480…60afbacked Fluxo W7M24c329.17$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.8939747.9%190 W · 207 L+1.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed RED Canids74c327.99$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.7158850.5%297 W · 291 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2eb…8979backed RED Canids61c327.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018347.5%87 W · 96 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5353…649cbacked Fluxo W7M38c302.64$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.467347.9%35 W · 38 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Fluxo W7M26c300.53$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.5716339.3%64 W · 99 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Fluxo W7M13c300$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2611,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked RED Canids74c299.99$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.9963646.9%298 W · 338 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Fluxo W7M49c291$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.4113454.5%73 W · 61 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69b9…a5d5backed RED Canids25c274.8$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.727247.8%130 W · 142 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Fluxo W7M40c266.29$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.771,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Fluxo W7M23c261$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.933,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd33a…1fe2backed RED Canids25c240$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6012340.7%50 W · 73 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3333…3c23backed Fluxo W7M25c240$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18028042.5%119 W · 161 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed RED Canids74c229$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.4696054.2%520 W · 440 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf28…db5dbacked Fluxo W7M61c163.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.978259.8%49 W · 33 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed RED Canids39c160.61$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7450749.7%252 W · 255 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked RED Canids52c159.76$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4495041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddc4…0270backed Fluxo W7M20c150$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12026639.5%105 W · 161 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe136…6d09backed Fluxo W7M23c147.34$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.3419738.6%76 W · 121 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa233…af5bbacked Fluxo W7M27c147.05$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.0510639.6%42 W · 64 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x00a1…df06backed RED Canids72c145.21$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5515944%70 W · 89 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked RED Canids46c143.29$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.982,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked Fluxo W7M18c135.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.5695048.5%461 W · 489 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked RED Canids40c133.24$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3240231.3%126 W · 276 L-28.2wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Fluxo W7M41c132.98$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.731,63846.7%765 W · 873 L-26.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Fluxo W7M59c130$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5474250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed RED Canids74c130$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.541,64344.4%730 W · 913 L-42.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Fluxo W7M20c127.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.651,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8165…ba12backed RED Canids79c126.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018248.4%88 W · 94 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2243…1ecebacked Fluxo W7M76c119.1$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200e…e21dbacked Fluxo W7M47c116.63$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0899747.1%470 W · 527 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed RED Canids53c111.74$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2176142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3561…1bfebacked Fluxo W7M57c107.11$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6225165.7%165 W · 86 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd9f…a586backed Fluxo W7M58c103.76$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.022259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bcc…0d8abacked RED Canids60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7612549.6%62 W · 63 L+10.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+26.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked RED Canids46c98.9$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.721,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed Fluxo W7M22c97.6$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.558155.6%323 W · 258 L+17.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7329…bebdbacked Fluxo W7M52c96.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.243453.5%232 W · 202 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed RED Canids25c94.32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5821242%89 W · 123 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked RED Canids75c93.3$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.381,18548.1%570 W · 615 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed RED Canids61c93$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.731,92435.9%691 W · 1,233 L-97.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Fluxo W7M18c84.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1958420.2%118 W · 466 L-58.1wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Fluxo W7M20c84$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.472,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Fluxo W7M64c80.67$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8626164.4%168 W · 93 L+0.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb63a…37b0backed RED Canids74c80$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.23056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69e6…b9f9backed Fluxo W7M30c80$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5662743.9%275 W · 352 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb515…cd6bbacked Fluxo W7M17c76.47$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4712047.5%57 W · 63 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc161…bd88backed Fluxo W7M31c74.19$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1973851.5%380 W · 358 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed RED Canids73c74.1$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.892,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd459…4757backed Fluxo W7M24c66$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1657754.9%317 W · 260 L+24.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Fluxo W7M39c65$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.475150.7%381 W · 370 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc9b2…2745backed Fluxo W7M31c64.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5812030.8%37 W · 83 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e47…0819backed RED Canids73c54.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.622040%8 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-28.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed Fluxo W7M26c51.92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4247630.7%146 W · 330 L-13.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1430…ed76backed Fluxo W7M25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf9…dde4backed Fluxo W7M26c46.15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1513156.5%74 W · 57 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e0…fe90backed Fluxo W7M29c45.05$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.056214.5%9 W · 53 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-58.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2924…2385backed Fluxo W7M36c45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.816142.9%69 W · 92 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.