Tennis · resolved market
ITF Wetzlar: Neo Niedner vs Tom Sickenberger
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12750ad4b95373634274f2dece8d86137fdca028278d8b0a8803a641c86d5e31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tom Sickenbergerof Neo Niedner, Tom Sickenberger
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Tom Sickenberger | 38c | 3,687$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,289.75 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Neo Niedner | 60c | 2,717$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.25 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Tom Sickenberger | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Neo Niedner | 37c | 507.38$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.88 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Tom Sickenberger | 21c | 500$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 259 | 50.2%130 W · 129 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Tom Sickenberger | 44c | 254.48$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.51 | 736 | 48.1%354 W · 382 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Neo Niedner | 10c | 224$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Neo Niedner | 62c | 203.3$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.45 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Tom Sickenberger | 16c | 109$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.56 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Neo Niedner | 64c | 102.73$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 502 | 68.3%343 W · 159 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Neo Niedner | 66c | 97.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 903 | 35.8%323 W · 580 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Tom Sickenberger | 32c | 72.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Tom Sickenberger | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…359cbacked Tom Sickenberger | 27c | 69.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 514 | 57.2%294 W · 220 L | +29.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Neo Niedner | 59c | 68.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Neo Niedner | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Tom Sickenberger | 31c | 65.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Neo Niedner | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Neo Niedner | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Neo Niedner | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Tom Sickenberger | 36c | 45.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…8ef6backed Neo Niedner | 65c | 42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Neo Niedner | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Neo Niedner | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1e…cbfbbacked Neo Niedner | 78c | 34.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Neo Niedner | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 431 | 44.8%193 W · 238 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tom Sickenberger | 56c | 22.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.