Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12931c99e61a39acb775e663237aa881641ea8df1204f2d612ba733a2dbed294
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 73c | 274.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 45c | 165.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 29c | 161.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 147.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 114.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 71c | 110.48$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 46c | 106.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 97.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 29c | 96.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 94.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 90.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 76.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 30c | 63.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 63.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 30c | 62.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 60.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 46c | 59.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 62c | 57.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 52.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 28c | 50.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 47.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 53c | 46.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 44.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 41.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 38.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 71c | 35.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 55c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked No | 55c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…fd19backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 55c | 31.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 31.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 54c | 27.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…4b84backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 23.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7a83backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 57c | 21.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 67c | 20.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 61c | 16.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 16.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…4f66backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or higher on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.