Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or below on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12c20586f2668bf52a3b6fa9145a0a666bd130a9fe3bf315a2f26af092913e5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,370$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,309.65 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 1,078$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.92 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 39c | 813.7$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.8 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 2c | 624.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.63 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 13c | 566.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 56c | 496$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 8c | 456.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 378.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 40c | 356.73$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.39 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 279.03$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 10c | 272.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.61 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 16c | 261.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 252.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 35c | 248.58$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.62 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked No | 73c | 212.67$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.87 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 27c | 204.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.72 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 200$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 71c | 161.33$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 30c | 159.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 23c | 149.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.8 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 146.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed No | 64c | 142.47$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 11c | 136.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…53aebacked No | 57c | 133.18$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 127.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 9c | 127$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 45c | 124$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 12c | 117.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 111.8$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.58 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…3b5abacked No | 45c | 111.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 76c | 110.04$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 45c | 110$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 21c | 107.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 51c | 97.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 24c | 93.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 16c | 90.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 45c | 89.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 14c | 87.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 44c | 83.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 80.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b6…4ad7backed No | 23c | 74.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 28c | 72.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 31c | 63.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 55c | 48.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 59c | 42.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed No | 55c | 40.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…fd8bbacked Yes | 74c | 38.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 73c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed Yes | 75c | 26.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 54c | 25.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 55c | 25.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 77c | 22.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 79c | 18.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or below on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 35°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.