Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca4557bdf94d993ed4bfc5c264789a555e784d2f8f590acb130c728c3d660400
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 670.15$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.72 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 621.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 487.13$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 292.75$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 61c | 290$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.85 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 259.03$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.05 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 39c | 192.24$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.51 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 39c | 162.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 60c | 147.63$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 37c | 134.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 131.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 35c | 124.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 63c | 120.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 107$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec22…b932backed No | 59c | 106.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 106.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 61c | 95.08$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 41c | 86.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 77.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 39c | 72.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 61.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 27c | 58.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 52.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 39c | 51.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6957…3d11backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ab…bedcbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 59c | 46.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 46.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…d28abacked Yes | 41c | 45.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 37c | 44.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 41.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 40c | 40.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 36.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 40c | 35.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 42c | 33.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 42c | 33.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 32.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 62c | 31.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 37c | 30.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 76c | 29.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 39c | 28.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 75c | 28.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 67c | 21.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 19.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 63c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…6e79backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 78c | 17.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 70c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or below on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 35°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.