Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12cb643aebdb1d307dc29fa12ba33367c0387531f89dd7907df2c9e3c82157b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 12c | 661.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 6c | 470$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 35c | 465.02$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.97 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 11c | 423.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 354.08$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…b863backed Yes | 22c | 341.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 12c | 311.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 28c | 305.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 19c | 282.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 73c | 232.14$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 183.56$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 21c | 177.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 11c | 141.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 133.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Yes | 15c | 132.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 27c | 118.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 32c | 103.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 93.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 22c | 93.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 19c | 89.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 32c | 86.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…2f75backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 28c | 77.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 24c | 71.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 69.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 78c | 68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 27c | 62.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be4…009abacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0259…33c9backed No | 69c | 57.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 30c | 50.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…7121backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 22c | 49.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 60c | 49.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed Yes | 22c | 45.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d72…9795backed No | 72c | 44.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 42.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f5…1183backed No | 72c | 41.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf8…9ed0backed No | 77c | 38.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…0141backed No | 79c | 37.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 69c | 37.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcb…56d1backed No | 78c | 37.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 73c | 34.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 72c | 33.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 30.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…21c4backed No | 73c | 28.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 51c | 27.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b8bbbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb55…5e8abacked No | 69c | 25.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30c5…8511backed No | 74c | 25.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 66c | 16.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 73c | 15.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 75c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C or below on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.