Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3afc864f9c96ff8daaf6f8fdc4737ff5c9899931493b092763787dbd0fbeaf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 1c | 7,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 4c | 1,114$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 13c | 641.43$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.76 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 49c | 465.65$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.43 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed No | 50c | 418$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 7c | 396.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 6c | 390.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…551fbacked No | 10c | 190.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…b10ebacked No | 11c | 162.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed Yes | 50c | 158.78$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 53c | 155.21$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 48c | 143.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 14c | 139.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 28c | 131.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 32c | 116.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 65c | 108.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 76c | 98.09$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked No | 57c | 90.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 18c | 84.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 76.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 29c | 75.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 42c | 69.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 68.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 49c | 53.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 47.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 43c | 46.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 71c | 33.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 55c | 31.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…272dbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23a1…392ebacked No | 49c | 29.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed No | 59c | 27.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 55c | 27.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…c64ebacked No | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae6a…80bdbacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 49c | 24.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 49c | 24.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 47c | 21.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…6469backed No | 66c | 21.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…e2bfbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 72c | 18.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 58c | 18.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C or below on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.