Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12e7ef2a5af0ffef0db2dfb689c0e39be416921353ebe8a3a65c77df7dd78d64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 57c | 6,480$3,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,684.99 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d2…d7c9backed Yes | 20c | 5,632$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,532.03 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 45c | 5,360$2,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,930.73 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 29c | 3,492$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,479.32 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 80c | 3,284$2,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,611.4 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 60c | 2,651$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.97 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked Yes | 25c | 2,176$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.32 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 36c | 1,681$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.66 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…4418backed Yes | 57c | 1,031$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 71c | 1,013$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.32 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 773.41$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.99 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 10c | 669.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 18c | 600$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 127 | 70.9%90 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 43c | 435.08$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.65 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 71c | 425.07$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.8 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 49c | 302.7$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.93 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 52c | 283.76$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.79 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Yes | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 16c | 276.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.13 | 264 | 17.8%47 W · 217 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 46c | 271.22$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.13 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 45c | 251.87$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.9 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Yes | 16c | 161.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.37 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 35c | 142.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 50c | 140.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 16c | 109.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.07 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…1d5bbacked Yes | 51c | 106.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Yes | 37c | 97.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Yes | 32c | 93.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ab…097cbacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 49c | 83.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Yes | 44c | 79.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Yes | 16c | 67.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 65c | 58.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 202 | 44.6%90 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Yes | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e3…931abacked Yes | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1040…ac10backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Yes | 56c | 22.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b22…d377backed No | 71c | 20.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c78…c49fbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x572b…83dbbacked Yes | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 76c | 18.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys end in a draw?this page
- Will FK Panevėžys win on 2026-07-30?No won
- Will Tobyl FK win on 2026-07-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.