Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Panevėžys win on 2026-07-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45e59d5a26c8a74eb3c02d38a0010f1e887b7459dcfa2a76bd87b669fe79530f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 9c | 9,242$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.68 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe15b…c15cbacked Yes | 8c | 3,608$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Yes | 10c | 3,072$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.46 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Yes | 9c | 2,396$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.62 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,632$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 1,408$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.54 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 13c | 1,267$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.11 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eef…83aabacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 3c | 1,086$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Yes | 19c | 787.88$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 7c | 724.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…a4fcbacked Yes | 7c | 337.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…5806backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 9c | 318.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 264 | 17.8%47 W · 217 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…ca2dbacked Yes | 8c | 280$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fc…cf21backed Yes | 8c | 233$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 10c | 222.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7b80backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 8c | 167.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Yes | 7c | 160.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1218…511dbacked Yes | 8c | 157.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 31c | 147.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 8c | 146.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc90a…1834backed Yes | 10c | 144.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…2c16backed Yes | 19c | 134.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +187.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c0…00d7backed Yes | 11c | 112.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…df75backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…a33fbacked Yes | 35c | 71.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…d55fbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Panevėžys win on 2026-07-30?this page
- Will Tobyl FK vs. FK Panevėžys end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Tobyl FK win on 2026-07-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.