Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12f6c20c0212124a7c521ebf8d030d3602835f9f7b8bd107641e17cbbb88a225
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 21c | 567.02$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.54 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 478.75$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 22c | 388.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 356.45$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 77c | 249.51$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 18c | 190.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 173.15$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 79c | 154.31$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 152.11$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 151.82$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 20c | 124.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 121.32$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc054…2050backed Yes | 26c | 116.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 24c | 114.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 21c | 109.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 109.02$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 21c | 105.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 78c | 105$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…abdfbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 89.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 17c | 88.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 19c | 82.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 75.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…f4c7backed No | 76c | 66.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 23c | 64.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 56.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 52.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 47.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 43.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8607backed No | 77c | 35.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 78c | 34.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 31.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 20.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 20.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 80c | 15.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.