Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x213dedf9cdc279d5748e7f49c1befcc4db1edd2c632ef11b4cb45790092f3820
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 55c | 892.82$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.93 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 32c | 746.67$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.52 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 52c | 486.76$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.37 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 51c | 429.84$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 71c | 422.81$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.59 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 54c | 357.25$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.92 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 48c | 320.11$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.46 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 307.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 48c | 272.98$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.15 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 249.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 14c | 247.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 246.47$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed No | 51c | 230$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 48c | 228.09$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.53 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 20c | 209.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 80c | 188.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 78c | 182.37$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.91 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 47c | 174.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.63 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 48c | 174.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.43 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 47c | 172.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.88 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 164.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 45c | 158.61$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked No | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 55c | 149$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 145.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 140.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed No | 12c | 139$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 52c | 126.94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 46c | 106.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 43c | 103.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 100.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…8ba1backed No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 51c | 94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 29c | 92.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 89.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2743…eb39backed No | 56c | 89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 57c | 86.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc054…2050backed No | 52c | 81.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 41c | 81.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 49c | 74.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 44c | 73.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 21c | 67.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…c418backed Yes | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 51c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 64.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 46c | 63.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 53c | 61.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 44c | 60.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked No | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 39c | 59.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 55c | 57.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5c…11b5backed Yes | 58c | 53.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 47c | 50.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 44c | 50.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 56c | 46.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…0018backed Yes | 45c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 23c | 44.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 50c | 42.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde37…877fbacked Yes | 75c | 41.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 40.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 71c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 46c | 38.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…4b84backed No | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed Yes | 30c | 35.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x704e…46d9backed No | 46c | 35.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 44c | 34.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 56c | 33.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 31c | 33.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed No | 68c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 57c | 32.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 64c | 32.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe3…cc7abacked Yes | 58c | 32.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 55c | 29.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f6…dbb6backed No | 41c | 29.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 42c | 29.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 66c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 58c | 25.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e0…77e4backed Yes | 60c | 25.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…8493backed Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…5ac2backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 53c | 20.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…5d9ebacked Yes | 52c | 20.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.