Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8195e45297b0e75e3278c5cbaa410b2ce400fbcb262e66ac463345ca11b7f940
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 24c | 990.24$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.51 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 644.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 21c | 500.19$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 407.35$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 257.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 192$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 186.24$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 21c | 174.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 168.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 165.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 165$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 151.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc054…2050backed Yes | 24c | 142.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 21c | 140.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 18c | 135.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 132.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 19c | 132.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 19c | 128.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 122$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes | 18c | 122$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 25c | 118$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked No | 76c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 23c | 97.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 75c | 97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…6a9bbacked Yes | 20c | 96.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 22c | 90.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 22c | 90.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 72c | 89.68$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 79.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 30c | 74.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 64.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 22c | 61.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 24c | 61.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 75c | 60.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 21c | 60.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 20c | 58.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 27c | 58.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 51.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…4b84backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 25c | 42.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…8893backed Yes | 37c | 39.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 80c | 39.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 77c | 38.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 79c | 38.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 78c | 34.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 31.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 75c | 30.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 74c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…5ae7backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 75cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70e6…f914backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 74cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 79c | 17.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 79c | 14.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 12.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.