MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12f9fd264044edfaaffbbea6f681d54002b3dc15257a8d272c2234d700238e94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 28c | 3,438$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 2,593$1,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.09 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Washington Nationals | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 992.9$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.69 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 23c | 795$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.85 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 35c | 658.14$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 535.19$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.96 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a26…1589backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 29c | 402.06$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 399$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Atlanta Braves | 27c | 381.69$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.06 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Washington Nationals | 69c | 343.37$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.55 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 301.93$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Washington Nationals | 69c | 259.3$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 19c | 245.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Atlanta Braves | 33c | 226.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.66 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 190.55$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Washington Nationals | 76c | 163.75$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 129.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Atlanta Braves | 27c | 87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Atlanta Braves | 23c | 72.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Washington Nationals | 75c | 46.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Washington Nationals | 69c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 34.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Washington Nationals | 69c | 16.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Washington Nationals | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.