MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfbba45ca4f325a9eafc3c5428ad3edcf71163b57aeb9a9872e4c3741b292249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 53c | 61,524$32,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,912.85 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 46c | 23,417$10,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,647.53 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 19,834$9,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,578.79 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 56c | 18,016$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 53c | 11,575$6,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,103.07 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 46c | 10,361$4,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,550.07 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 73c | 9,602$7,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,592.61 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 8,675$3,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,707.66 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 7,139$3,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,762.65 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 45c | 6,400$2,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,520 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 46c | 3,072$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,658.88 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 2,578$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.94 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 2,509$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.69 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 52c | 2,117$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 1,984$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.82 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 53c | 1,250$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.2 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 49c | 1,187$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.18 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 1,106$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.63 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 54c | 975$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.5 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 52c | 954.47$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.34 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 46c | 789.64$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.31 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Over | 53c | 618.62$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.87 | 179 | 61.5%110 W · 69 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 595.2$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.48 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 52c | 588.92$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.24 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Under | 52c | 454.68$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.51 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 52c | 448.6$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.43 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 384.96$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.13 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 383.3$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 52c | 238.28$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.43 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 52c | 199.11$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.73 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 46c | 174$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 46c | 165.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.83 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 45c | 156.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.92 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 48c | 149.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 48c | 149.84$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 46c | 133.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 48c | 127.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Under | 45c | 122.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 47c | 102.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 52c | 102.07$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 46c | 100.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 47c | 99.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Under | 49c | 96.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked Over | 55c | 88.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 48c | 86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Under | 46c | 83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Under | 54c | 76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Over | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Under | 46c | 61.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 60.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 55c | 50.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 48.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 47c | 47.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 48c | 46.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Over | 52c | 44.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…b267backed Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497c…30a9backed Under | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 46c | 36.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 54c | 36.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 44c | 32.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb833…9a67backed Over | 34c | 30.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 46c | 28.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 48c | 24.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Under | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 47c | 22.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Under | 50c | 21.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Over | 52c | 20.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.