MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cbfcaf97921f09cf2a30870de371cb1260121df772912a1f5abb8351cc02e89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 58c | 5,406$3,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,270.53 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 4,159$1,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,742.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 57c | 3,682$2,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598.93 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 57c | 3,510$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.3 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 46c | 2,841$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.78 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 42c | 2,200$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 57c | 1,752$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.17 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 32c | 1,266$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.98 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 54c | 1,153$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.36 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 1,092$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.74 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 42c | 1,082$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.44 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 1,074$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Under | 57c | 859.42$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.44 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.27 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 34c | 645.17$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.54 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 32c | 619$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.95 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 59c | 615.15$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.62 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 35c | 583.53$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.47 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 36c | 528.69$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.49 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 42c | 479$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.75 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 420.25$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.56 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 40c | 409.64$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.06 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 57c | 353.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.27 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 42c | 313.98$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.87 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Over | 23c | 219.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 56c | 192.91$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.88 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 57c | 176.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 57c | 168$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 59c | 154.58$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 43c | 153.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 43c | 153.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 58c | 150.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 44c | 122$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Under | 71c | 108.52$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 43c | 103.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 32c | 99.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Over | 36c | 95.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 59c | 77.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 41c | 72.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 65c | 71.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 57c | 70.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 43c | 68.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Over | 35c | 66.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 42c | 64.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 72c | 61.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Under | 57c | 55.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 46c | 48.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 32c | 39.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 57c | 34.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Under | 54c | 34.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 36c | 32.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Under | 56c | 30.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…2aeabacked Over | 35c | 30.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…4669backed Over | 43c | 29.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 66c | 28.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 43c | 28.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 59c | 25.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 57c | 23.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Under | 57c | 23.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…951ebacked Under | 62c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 56c | 19.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 54c | 18.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 65c | 16.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.