Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12fe5b47a65f866b6eb1bf196bde2da0657ca952b2d7f100bd90f5dddd0b604d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f32…073abacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…635ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 5c | 1,471$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,059$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.14 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 757.15$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 746.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed Yes | 3c | 740.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…2fdebacked Yes | 11c | 681.63$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 17c | 388.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 14c | 326.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 14c | 316.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 17c | 299.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 76c | 263$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 10c | 249.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 23c | 226.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 216.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 207.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc017…9f26backed Yes | 23c | 200.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 78c | 186.29$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 20c | 134.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 16c | 111.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 18c | 106.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 99.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd94c…3fe4backed Yes | 19c | 98.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…dc99backed Yes | 16c | 97.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 97.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 22c | 96.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 12c | 89.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed Yes | 14c | 88.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 24c | 78.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed Yes | 15c | 70.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 18c | 69.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes | 21c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 29c | 60.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 79c | 32.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfe…ab86backed Yes | 40c | 30.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 79c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 77c | 19.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d8…316fbacked No | 79c | 15.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.